Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion

This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.     

Expanding the Dragon’s Reach:The Rise of China’s Anti-access Naval Doctrine and Forces

Among the multiple dimensions of the tous azimuths modernisation of Chinese naval forces, the development of China’s anti-access capacity has recently elicited considerable interest. The important link between this capacity and an overarching vision of the use of force – i.e. a naval doctrine – has, however, often been left implicit. This article shows that the particular development of China’s naval anti-access forces – more precisely, forces with an impact on the naval balance – can be explained by a shift of China’s naval doctrine towards a distinctly pre-emptive posture, which, itself, stems from the set of constraints imposed by the framework of ‘local war under informationised conditions’.     

Hardening the Hard,Softening the Soft: Assertiveness and China’s Regional Strategy

There is a growing view that the emerging brand of Chinese regional diplomacy in recent years is increasingly assertive. This article attempts to make better sense of this perceived more forceful Chinese diplomacy. It argues that Chinese regional behavior is more profitably understood through the lens of a two-pronged foreign policy strategy that combines two particular aspects. One is a tougher and more uncompromising approach toward issues that China regards as concerning its core interests. The other is a more flexible and cooperative position toward interests that, while significant, are of secondary importance.     

Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals

This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017     

毛泽东战场造势思想探析

谋势造势是毛泽东军事思想的重要组成部分,具有丰富的内涵和鲜明的特色。研究这一内容,既是继承和发扬毛泽东军事思想的需要,也是指导信息化条件下作战的需求。研究认为,争夺优势和主动是毛泽东战场造势的灵魂;善于机动和调敌是毛泽东战场造势的核心;利用民势和地势是毛泽东战场造势的特色。     

关注民生 改善民生——中国共产党一以贯之的执政价值取向

民生问题是人类社会发展的基本问题,在科学社会主义理论体系中具有终极性价值意义。中国共产党自成立以来一直高度关注民生并致力于积极改善民生的各项工作,在此过程中形成了具有中国特色的社会主义民生思想,丰富了中国特色社会主义理论体系,为进一步推进我国民生改善的进程指明了方向。     

人民武装警察执勤行为性质刍议

《中华人民共和国人民武装警察法》（以下简称《人民武装警察法》）颁布实施已经两年了,相关法律问题的争议和研讨从未停止,人民武装警察执勤行为如何定性就是其中之一。本文从人民武装警察的主体性质、军事性质行为与行政性质行为的特点,以及执勤行为发生的具体时空等角度进行分析,提出了自己的看法。     

孙子“不战而屈人之兵”战略思想透析

孙子“不战而屈人之兵”全胜攻心战略思想是孙子兵学思想的核心。它是高明而科学的理论构想。其实质是以强大的军事实力为后盾,以高超的“伐谋”、“伐交”艺术作为达到目标的有效手段,以周全的“修道保法”措施作为达到目标的可靠保证,用全胜的计谋争胜于天下。它是高于军事战略的完美战略,是抑战、遏战的妙策良方,制胜对手的理想武器。它为人类和平的前景提供了新的思路,对于当今世界乃至世界未来以及人类和平,有着不可估量的指导意义。     

Delusion of Defeat: The United States and Iraq, 1990–1998

This article challenges the widely held belief that that the United States ‘won the war but lost the peace’ following the war with Iraq in 1991. Fears of a resurgent Iraq grew throughout the decade, despite abundant evidence that Iraq was becoming desperately weak and was no longer a threat to regional security. In fact, the United States won the war as well as the peace by any meaningful definition of the term. The article also discusses the reasons why US policymakers and observers convinced themselves that they had lost. The final section considers implications for strategy and policy in wars of limited objectives.